Markets here
| NAICS | PSC | Contract size | Awards | Vendors | Median award |
|---|
Award value benchmark
Competition
Contracts ending in the next year
| Ends | Incumbent | PSC | Set-aside | Offers | Current ceiling |
|---|
Comparable awards
| Awarded | Winner | Set-aside | Offers | Pricing | Ends | Ceiling |
|---|
Top vendors by award count
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This tool answers one market cell at a time. A brief covers the agencies and NAICS codes you actually bid in: what is expiring, who holds it, how the field around it has behaved, and which awards are worth research time before a competitor gets there.
See one first: a market brief — what is expiring in HHS management consulting, who holds it, and how the field has behaved — or a pursuit brief, the same data narrowed to one company's profile and ranked. Or browse the thirteen markets with a real competitive field — each a page generated from the same data.
Send me your top two or three agencies, your NAICS codes and your typical contract size, and I'll build it this week.
jonas@contravalis.comWhere this data comes from, and what it doesn't tell you
The source
Public federal contract data — the USAspending.gov prime award archives, the government's own record of what it awarded, to whom, and for how much. Nothing here is proprietary, modelled or estimated: every figure is an aggregate of real award records, and the comparable awards listed below a result are the individual rows behind it.
What a comparison is made of
Awards are grouped into cells of awarding agency, NAICS industry code, product or service code (PSC) and size tier, over a recent window of fiscal years. Your estimated value picks the size tier, so a $40,000 order is compared against other small orders rather than against multi-year vehicles in the same industry.
When a cell holds too few awards for a percentile to mean anything, the observed range is shown instead of quantiles — an interpolation between three numbers is arithmetic, not a benchmark. The threshold comes from the API with each answer rather than being fixed in this page, so it cannot drift from what the analysis actually used.
The comparable awards and the recompete radar are drawn from awards above a value floor, over a recent window of fiscal years, with the radar looking a fixed horizon ahead. Those three settings belong to the build that produced this data rather than to this page, which is why you will not find them quoted as fixed numbers here — a page that repeated them would eventually be repeating them wrongly.
Where the record is incomplete
Offer counts are unreported on a large share of federal awards. The average above is computed over the awards that carry the field, and the "offer data coverage" line next to it says how many that was — an average backed by half a cell and one backed by all of it are different claims, and showing them identically would invite you to trust them equally. A low offer count is evidence about what was reported, not proof that nobody else bid.
USAspending records who won. It does not record who lost, so nothing here can tell you which firms competed against an incumbent and were not selected — only how many offers were received, where that was reported at all.
The record runs behind reality, and the last quarter of it runs furthest behind. Agencies have up to 90 days to file an action, so recent months are thin everywhere this data appears — on this page and on USAspending's own dashboards alike. The clearest measure of it: in fiscal years 2024 and 2025, August and September together accounted for 26.6% and 28.1% of all contract obligations, the year-end rush before funds expire. In fiscal 2026, which closed on 30 September and is still inside that 90-day window, they show as 11.4%. That spending happened; it has not been filed yet.
This matters least where the numbers are averaged over years — a benchmark drawn from several fiscal years barely moves. It matters most on the recompete radar: an extension signed two months ago may not be on the record, so a contract shown as expiring may already have been renewed. Treat the soonest dates as the ones most worth confirming against the agency, not the ones most certain.
What "recompete" means here, and what it doesn't
The recompete radar lists awards whose current period of performance ends within the horizon. That is a date on the record, not an announcement: an agency may re-solicit early, extend, restructure the requirement, or not compete it at all. Ceiling growth since award is likewise a fact about modifications already made, not a prediction about the next competition.
These are research signals — reasons to spend time on something before a competitor does. They are not procurement advice, and they are not a substitute for the official solicitation. Verify any specific opportunity against the notice before acting on it.