Four hundred seventy-seven contracts in this space reach the end of their current period of performance within twelve months. Below are the largest with real runway to pursue, the incumbents holding them, and what the competitive field around them actually looks like.
| Incumbent | Period ends | Current value | Offers | Ceiling vs. award |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logistics Management InstituteCMS — Medicare & Medicaid Services | Jan 29 2027 · 4 mo | $55.8M | 1 | +189% |
| Rios PartnersCMS — Medicare & Medicaid Services | Apr 21 2027 · 7 mo | $52.4M | 3 | +399% |
| National Opinion Research CenterNational Institutes of Health | Mar 28 2027 · 6 mo | $46.8M | 1 | +567% |
| A. Reddix & AssociatesCMS — Medicare & Medicaid Services | Aug 25 2027 · 11 mo | $36.5M | 1 | +89% |
| Kaiva StrategiesCenters for Disease Control | Jan 23 2027 · 4 mo | $29.0M | 1 | +16% |
| Duty First ConsultingCMS — Medicare & Medicaid Services | Jun 14 2027 · 9 mo | $28.2M | 2 | +50% |
| Tunnell ConsultingFood and Drug Administration | Apr 19 2027 · 7 mo | $27.9M | n/a | +15% |
| Booz Allen HamiltonCMS — Medicare & Medicaid Services | Mar 29 2027 · 6 mo | $26.0M | 6 | +256% |
| StrategyGen CoCMS — Medicare & Medicaid Services | Jul 31 2027 · 10 mo | $24.1M | 2 | +34% |
Source: USAspending.gov prime award archives, FY2020–FY2025. Contravalis analysis. Values are current total value of award; "period ends" is the current period-of-performance end date on record. Offer counts are unreported on a meaningful share of federal awards, shown as n/a where absent.
Source: USAspending.gov prime award archives, FY2020–FY2025, NAICS 541611 at HHS, base-and-all-options value $1M–$25M. Contravalis analysis. The set-aside bars report the set-aside code on each award; "no set-aside recorded" means the award was not restricted to a category, which is not the same as having been openly competed. How the work was actually competed is the separate extent competed field, reported in the left-hand column: 67% full and open, a further 7% full and open after exclusion of sources, and 23% not competed or not available for competition.
| Firm | Awards won | Total ceiling |
|---|---|---|
| Deloitte Consulting | 89 | $542M |
| Booz Allen Hamilton | 62 | $367M |
| Research Triangle Institute | 55 | $234M |
| ICF Incorporated | 53 | $253M |
| Mathematica | 51 | $284M |
| Eagle Hill Consulting | 50 | $134M |
Source: USAspending.gov prime award archives, FY2020–FY2025. Contravalis analysis. Bar length is proportional to award count.
A concentrated top tier — six firms account for a large share of the repeat wins — but a long tail of 421 vendors takes work in this band, and average competition sits near two offers where an offer count was reported at all. The figure worth sitting with is the other one: roughly a quarter of this band was never competed. That is not addressable work, and a pipeline built on the headline count of expiring contracts will overstate itself by about that much. A thin original field and a ceiling that has grown well past what was competed are signals that justify early research — not evidence that a recompete is coming or that an incumbent is vulnerable.
This brief covers one market cell. The same build runs against whichever agencies and NAICS codes you actually compete in — with your value band, your window, your incumbents.
Reply with your top two or three agencies, your NAICS codes and your typical contract size, and I'll build it this week — jonas@contravalis.com